I hope everyone is having a great Thursday. The struggle is real trying to figure out whats going on in the atmosphere.
Storm #1 Dec 22-23 that could have ended up being a significant snowstorm for the coverage area will stay weak and suppressed to the south. If anything…parts of the coverage area may see some rain/snow showers throughout the day, but again nothing significant.
Storm #2..or the Christmas storm….models are all over with this….no surprise. Some guidance cuts the storm west as an inland runner while other guidance has the low more east as more of a coastal storm. Both scenarios have a wind driven rain storm for us. It is too early yet to make any definitive assumptions. Either way the christmas storm looks to be the more potent of a storm whether it ends up being rain, snow, an inland runner, or a coastal storm. The details and track will be narrowed down as we get closer to the event.
Our atmosphere is loaded right now to the point in which the models can’t handle each piece of energy properly, which is one of the reasons why I believe the models are having such a hard time sticking to any particular solution. That being said we have to look at whats more likely to occur within our current pattern and figure out what makes sense despite what the models show. We can only ever use the models as guidance not gospel.
That being said we will continue to monitor and analyize the latest data over the coming days. Check back for more updates!
#StudentMeteorologistEthan #longrange #TeamSS
Bad News Tonight for Snow Lovers.
Models continue to play games. We have been clear that when we talk about these events they are not forecasts but rather what the models show at that time. Models have gone for 15+ INCHES TO NOTHING ! #Brad
Mid-Long Range Model Explanation:
The following information is not a forecast, but a model discussion.
A low pressure system will develop Thursday Night in the South Central plains. The GFS indicates it will move east-northeast into the Southeast Friday. By Saturday into Sunday the majority of its energy will be off the Carolina Coast.
Our area is minimally affected.
The European model develops a low pressure system in the South Central Plains Friday and rapidly intensifies it. Moisture then travels east into the Gulf Coast Region Saturday, meanwhile weakening. All energy is suppressed south of our region as a result of a strong high pressure to the north.
Long Range Discussion
There is another potential storm near Christmas. Recent models have been in some-what agreement. An area of low pressure will organize in the Lower Mississippi Valley around the 23rd. At this time we are not confident on its exact destination.
Based off newest data, the low pressure will travel north-northeast into the Ohio Valley.
Unfortunately this could result in a very warm and wet Christmas for our area.
We will continue to monitor both. Check S&S often for updates.